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NO ACTIVE SIGNAL · BTCUSDTMarket state NO-TRADEIndex 36/100Levels appear only when a real signal is published
B
-0.48%VERIFIED FEEDBTC / USDT63,641.5
SYNTALIUM
KEY INDICATORS · BTCUSDT · 1h
IndicatorCurrentGaugeEngine status
Syntalium Index36.1 / 100WAIT
Entropy · noise0.9118ENTROPY_HIGH
Trend strength1.8453TREND_WEAK
ATR % · volatility0.0040ATR_OK
Candle pressure-0.4754PRESSURE_SELL
Taker ratio0.4407TAKER_BALANCED
Volume Z-score-0.5783—
Market stateNO-TRADECLEAN_SNAPSHOT
Freshness24m agoFRESH
Printed values are exact public-contract values; gauges are display-only. Engine status chips are the engine's own published reason codes — not trade instructions.
RECORD & PROOF
Published signalNONE
Published at—
Close reason—
Decision proof—
Publication receipt—
Outcome proof—
SNAP ID9da1efe1611bd49639…
Publish rolebtc_hourly_free_visual
Published at2026-08-11 22:00:14
VerifyVerify SNAP ↗
Proof verifies stored SNAP payload integrity. It does not guarantee trade performance or represent financial advice.
RESEARCH STATS · PROOF-BASED COHORTS
VERIFIED OUTCOMES ONLYVerified outcomes 231Excluded outcomes 57Cohorts 110Generated 2026-08-11T22:23:47+00:00 UTC
Engine lifecycle outcomes only. Educational analytics. Not financial advice.
16/110Cohorts at full statistical confidence
27Watch — preliminary signal
67Low sample — too early to read
LONG + SHORTDirections with verified outcomes
Research accumulates every time a setup closes — these counts grow on their own; nothing here is backfilled or replayed.
TIMEFRAME × DIRECTION
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m · LONG | 187 | 106 / 81 / 0 | 56.7% | 49.5–63.6% | -4.58 | 0.08 | 0.94 | -0.62 | ENOUGH N |
| 1h · LONG | 41 | 21 / 20 / 0 | 51.2% | 36.5–65.8% | -51.74 | -0.05 | 0.80 | -0.69 | ENOUGH N |
| 4h · LONG | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -356.94 | -1.01 | 0.49 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
RAW MODEL SCORE BUCKETS
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 · 15m · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | +0.01 | -0.09 | 0.76 | -0.67 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 15m · LONG | 7 | 7 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 64.6–100.0% | +0.13 | 0.63 | 1.01 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1h · LONG | 3 | 1 / 2 / 0 | 33.3% | 6.2–79.2% | -6.19 | -0.38 | 0.93 | -0.80 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -12.67 | -1.01 | 0.24 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 15m · LONG | 12 | 5 / 7 / 0 | 41.7% | 19.3–68.0% | -3.13 | -0.13 | 0.95 | -0.80 | WATCH |
| 0.60-0.65 · 1h · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | +0.22 | -0.23 | 0.54 | -0.93 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 15m · LONG | 14 | 6 / 8 / 0 | 42.9% | 21.4–67.4% | -1.62 | -0.38 | 0.62 | -0.82 | WATCH |
| 0.65-0.70 · 1h · LONG | 4 | 3 / 1 / 0 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | +3.40 | 0.51 | 1.24 | -0.58 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 15m · LONG | 152 | 87 / 65 / 0 | 57.2% | 49.3–64.8% | -5.24 | 0.12 | 0.96 | -0.61 | ENOUGH N |
| >=0.70 · 1h · LONG | 32 | 16 / 16 / 0 | 50.0% | 33.6–66.4% | -66.15 | -0.08 | 0.74 | -0.67 | ENOUGH N |
| >=0.70 · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
Raw model score is a raw engine output — not a calibrated probability.
ENTROPY REGIMES
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH · 15m · LONG | 157 | 93 / 64 / 0 | 59.2% | 51.4–66.6% | -5.05 | 0.13 | 0.95 | -0.61 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 1h · LONG | 39 | 21 / 18 / 0 | 53.9% | 38.6–68.4% | -54.27 | 0.00 | 0.81 | -0.67 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 4h · LONG | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -356.94 | -1.01 | 0.49 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 15m · LONG | 30 | 13 / 17 / 0 | 43.3% | 27.4–60.8% | -2.08 | -0.15 | 0.88 | -0.69 | ENOUGH N |
| MID · 1h · LONG | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -2.35 | -1.02 | 0.53 | -1.02 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
UTC SESSION BEHAVIOR
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 15m · LONG | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | -2.33 | -0.27 | 0.68 | -0.73 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 15m · LONG | 25 | 13 / 12 / 0 | 52.0% | 33.5–70.0% | +15.22 | -0.03 | 0.86 | -0.71 | WATCH |
| ASIA · 1h · LONG | 4 | 1 / 3 / 0 | 25.0% | 4.6–69.9% | -162.09 | -0.71 | 0.48 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -12.67 | -1.01 | 0.24 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 15m · LONG | 24 | 13 / 11 / 0 | 54.2% | 35.1–72.1% | -41.14 | -0.01 | 0.95 | -0.71 | WATCH |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.61 | 1.24 | 1.79 | -0.40 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 15m · LONG | 9 | 4 / 5 / 0 | 44.4% | 18.9–73.3% | +1.02 | -0.20 | 0.82 | -0.69 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 1h · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | +2.70 | -0.04 | 0.68 | -0.59 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEW_YORK · 15m · LONG | 31 | 13 / 18 / 0 | 41.9% | 26.4–59.2% | -7.10 | -0.12 | 0.79 | -0.62 | ENOUGH N |
| NEW_YORK · 1h · LONG | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -356.80 | -1.01 | 0.59 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| OFF_HOURS · 15m · LONG | 11 | 4 / 7 / 0 | 36.4% | 15.2–64.6% | -0.24 | -0.27 | 0.76 | -0.74 | WATCH |
| OFF_HOURS · 1h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.00 | -1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 15m · LONG | 81 | 56 / 25 / 0 | 69.1% | 58.4–78.1% | -0.26 | 0.31 | 1.06 | -0.53 | ENOUGH N |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 1h · LONG | 29 | 17 / 12 / 0 | 58.6% | 40.7–74.5% | -26.58 | 0.10 | 0.86 | -0.63 | WATCH |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
Asia / London / New York are UTC research windows, not exchange hours.
ANONYMOUS PARTICIPANT PRESSURE
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUYER_AGGRESSION · 15m · LONG | 4 | 3 / 1 / 0 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | +0.22 | 0.57 | 1.31 | -0.41 | LOW SAMPLE |
| BUYER_AGGRESSION · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.46 | 0.54 | 0.68 | -0.86 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 15m · LONG | 57 | 33 / 24 / 0 | 57.9% | 45.0–69.8% | +8.38 | 0.18 | 0.96 | -0.58 | ENOUGH N |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 1h · LONG | 11 | 8 / 3 / 0 | 72.7% | 43.4–90.3% | +1.22 | 0.23 | 0.83 | -0.51 | WATCH |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 15m · LONG | 116 | 64 / 52 / 0 | 55.2% | 46.1–63.9% | -11.49 | 0.00 | 0.89 | -0.65 | ENOUGH N |
| NEUTRAL · 1h · LONG | 29 | 12 / 17 / 0 | 41.4% | 25.5–59.3% | -73.63 | -0.18 | 0.79 | -0.75 | WATCH |
| NEUTRAL · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -12.67 | -1.01 | 0.24 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| SELLER_AGGRESSION · 15m · LONG | 10 | 6 / 4 / 0 | 60.0% | 31.3–83.2% | -0.19 | 0.26 | 1.19 | -0.61 | WATCH |
Behavioral pressure states only — no participant identity is inferred.
WHY SOME OUTCOMES ARE NOT COUNTED
decision_scope_legacy_incomplete2
legacy_close_price_provenance_unknown55
Engine lifecycle outcomes only, verified against outcome proofs. Avg result is the engine lifecycle result (simulated) — not exchange-reconciled PnL. R-multiple / MFE / MAE are engine-tick excursion analytics and stay “—” until enough new closes carry them. Educational analytics — not financial advice.