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NO ACTIVE SIGNAL · BTCUSDTMarket state TENSEIndex 50/100Levels appear only when a real signal is published
B
-0.66%VERIFIED FEEDBTC / USDT82,542.1
SYNTALIUM
KEY INDICATORS · BTCUSDT · 1h
IndicatorCurrentGaugeEngine status
Syntalium Index50.2 / 100TENSE
Entropy · noise0.6446ENTROPY_MIXED
Trend strength3.7571—
ATR % · volatility0.0059ATR_OK
Candle pressure-0.5222PRESSURE_SELL
Taker ratio0.4646TAKER_BALANCED
Volume Z-score1.0789—
Market stateTENSECLEAN_SNAPSHOT
Freshness59m agoFRESH
Printed values are exact public-contract values; gauges are display-only. Engine status chips are the engine's own published reason codes — not trade instructions.
RECORD & PROOF
Published signalNONE
Published at—
Close reason—
Decision proof—
Publication receipt—
Outcome proof—
SNAP ID966d3af17eb31f425a…
Publish rolebtc_hourly_free_visual
Published at2026-10-12 15:00:17
VerifyVerify SNAP ↗
Proof verifies stored SNAP payload integrity. It does not guarantee trade performance or represent financial advice.
RESEARCH STATS · PROOF-BASED COHORTS
VERIFIED OUTCOMES ONLYVerified outcomes 347Excluded outcomes 57Cohorts 233Generated 2026-10-12T15:59:07+00:00 UTC
Engine lifecycle outcomes only. Educational analytics. Not financial advice.
25/233Cohorts at full statistical confidence
37Watch — preliminary signal
171Low sample — too early to read
LONG + SHORTDirections with verified outcomes
Research accumulates every time a setup closes — these counts grow on their own; nothing here is backfilled or replayed.
TIMEFRAME × DIRECTION
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m · LONG | 215 | 119 / 96 / 0 | 55.4% | 48.7–61.8% | -3.95 | 0.06 | 0.94 | -0.63 | ENOUGH N |
| 15m · SHORT | 37 | 18 / 19 / 0 | 48.6% | 33.5–64.1% | -27.11 | -0.29 | 0.59 | -0.74 | ENOUGH N |
| 1d · LONG | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 43.9–100.0% | +59.20 | 1.21 | 1.44 | -0.34 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 1d · SHORT | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 43.9–100.0% | +12.37 | 0.59 | 1.09 | -0.36 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 1h · LONG | 61 | 33 / 28 / 0 | 54.1% | 41.7–66.0% | -17.17 | 0.01 | 0.82 | -0.68 | ENOUGH N |
| 1h · SHORT | 17 | 10 / 7 / 0 | 58.8% | 36.0–78.4% | +0.50 | -0.06 | 0.67 | -0.64 | WATCH |
| 4h · LONG | 10 | 8 / 2 / 0 | 80.0% | 49.0–94.3% | +264.87 | 0.94 | 1.53 | -0.42 | WATCH |
| 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
RAW MODEL SCORE BUCKETS
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 · 15m · LONG | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | +0.46 | -0.11 | 0.68 | -0.80 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.50-0.55 · 15m · SHORT | 3 | 1 / 2 / 0 | 33.3% | 6.2–79.2% | -0.07 | -0.42 | 0.61 | -0.67 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.50-0.55 · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.89 | 0.73 | 1.05 | -0.59 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.50-0.55 · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.01 | 0.74 | 1.10 | -0.46 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 15m · LONG | 11 | 9 / 2 / 0 | 81.8% | 52.3–94.9% | +0.07 | 0.34 | 0.92 | -0.45 | WATCH |
| 0.55-0.60 · 15m · SHORT | 16 | 10 / 6 / 0 | 62.5% | 38.6–81.5% | -1.73 | -0.10 | 0.69 | -0.68 | WATCH |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.21 | 2.51 | 2.51 | -0.28 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1d · SHORT | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +18.11 | 0.51 | 1.11 | -0.24 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1h · LONG | 15 | 6 / 9 / 0 | 40.0% | 19.8–64.3% | +69.32 | -0.17 | 0.78 | -0.72 | WATCH |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1h · SHORT | 5 | 2 / 3 / 0 | 40.0% | 11.8–76.9% | -1.14 | -0.25 | 0.70 | -0.69 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 4h · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | +1674.53 | -0.15 | 0.64 | -0.71 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 15m · LONG | 15 | 7 / 8 / 0 | 46.7% | 24.8–69.9% | -2.10 | -0.02 | 1.05 | -0.72 | WATCH |
| 0.60-0.65 · 15m · SHORT | 14 | 4 / 10 / 0 | 28.6% | 11.7–54.6% | -69.66 | -0.63 | 0.42 | -0.86 | WATCH |
| 0.60-0.65 · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +177.26 | 0.04 | 0.23 | -0.69 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 1h · LONG | 3 | 1 / 2 / 0 | 33.3% | 6.2–79.2% | +0.05 | -0.49 | 0.40 | -0.96 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 1h · SHORT | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | +0.70 | -0.14 | 0.76 | -0.64 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 4h · LONG | 6 | 6 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 61.0–100.0% | +0.13 | 1.65 | 2.03 | -0.25 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 15m · LONG | 18 | 8 / 10 / 0 | 44.4% | 24.6–66.3% | -1.26 | -0.30 | 0.75 | -0.77 | WATCH |
| 0.65-0.70 · 15m · SHORT | 3 | 2 / 1 / 0 | 66.7% | 20.8–93.8% | +0.06 | 0.01 | 0.68 | -0.78 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 1h · LONG | 8 | 7 / 1 / 0 | 87.5% | 52.9–97.8% | +1.72 | 0.66 | 1.25 | -0.57 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 1h · SHORT | 5 | 4 / 1 / 0 | 80.0% | 37.5–96.4% | +2.24 | 0.06 | 0.43 | -0.64 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 4h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.07 | 0.76 | 1.11 | -0.30 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 15m · LONG | 165 | 92 / 73 / 0 | 55.8% | 48.1–63.1% | -4.85 | 0.09 | 0.96 | -0.62 | ENOUGH N |
| >=0.70 · 15m · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.06 | 0.73 | 1.06 | -0.16 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.12 | 1.10 | 1.58 | -0.05 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 1h · LONG | 35 | 19 / 16 / 0 | 54.3% | 38.2–69.5% | -60.03 | -0.01 | 0.78 | -0.66 | ENOUGH N |
| >=0.70 · 1h · SHORT | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | +0.11 | -0.15 | 0.80 | -0.60 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
Raw model score is a raw engine output — not a calibrated probability.
ENTROPY REGIMES
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH · 15m · LONG | 175 | 101 / 74 / 0 | 57.7% | 50.3–64.8% | -4.51 | 0.10 | 0.95 | -0.62 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 15m · SHORT | 32 | 17 / 15 / 0 | 53.1% | 36.5–69.1% | -30.31 | -0.23 | 0.61 | -0.70 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 1d · LONG | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 43.9–100.0% | +59.20 | 1.21 | 1.44 | -0.34 | LOW SAMPLE |
| HIGH · 1d · SHORT | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +7.87 | 0.82 | 1.17 | -0.39 | LOW SAMPLE |
| HIGH · 1h · LONG | 52 | 29 / 23 / 0 | 55.8% | 42.3–68.4% | -20.04 | 0.07 | 0.84 | -0.64 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 1h · SHORT | 11 | 8 / 3 / 0 | 72.7% | 43.4–90.3% | +0.20 | 0.20 | 0.77 | -0.50 | WATCH |
| HIGH · 4h · LONG | 8 | 6 / 2 / 0 | 75.0% | 40.9–92.8% | -89.14 | 0.94 | 1.58 | -0.41 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LOW · 15m · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.00 | -1.01 | 0.14 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LOW · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.01 | 0.82 | 1.19 | -0.70 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 15m · LONG | 39 | 18 / 21 / 0 | 46.1% | 31.6–61.4% | -1.54 | -0.10 | 0.91 | -0.68 | ENOUGH N |
| MID · 15m · SHORT | 5 | 1 / 4 / 0 | 20.0% | 3.6–62.5% | -6.64 | -0.73 | 0.46 | -1.00 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +21.37 | 0.13 | 0.93 | -0.29 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 1h · LONG | 8 | 3 / 5 / 0 | 37.5% | 13.7–69.4% | -0.63 | -0.45 | 0.64 | -0.93 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 1h · SHORT | 6 | 2 / 4 / 0 | 33.3% | 9.7–70.0% | +1.05 | -0.54 | 0.49 | -0.90 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 4h · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +1680.89 | 0.93 | 1.34 | -0.45 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
UTC SESSION BEHAVIOR
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 15m · LONG | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | -2.33 | -0.27 | 0.68 | -0.73 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 15m · SHORT | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -0.02 | -1.01 | 0.25 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.00 | 1.55 | 2.24 | -0.18 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 4h · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.98 | 2.32 | -0.22 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 15m · LONG | 32 | 14 / 18 / 0 | 43.8% | 28.2–60.7% | +11.78 | -0.19 | 0.84 | -0.75 | ENOUGH N |
| ASIA · 15m · SHORT | 8 | 4 / 4 / 0 | 50.0% | 21.5–78.5% | -0.36 | -0.32 | 0.48 | -0.82 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 1d · LONG | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 43.9–100.0% | +59.20 | 1.21 | 1.44 | -0.34 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +14.86 | 0.90 | 1.29 | -0.19 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 1h · LONG | 8 | 3 / 5 / 0 | 37.5% | 13.7–69.4% | -79.38 | -0.40 | 0.58 | -0.86 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 4h · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | -6.32 | 0.07 | 0.94 | -0.75 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 15m · LONG | 26 | 13 / 13 / 0 | 50.0% | 32.1–67.9% | -37.98 | -0.08 | 0.91 | -0.74 | WATCH |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 15m · SHORT | 8 | 5 / 3 / 0 | 62.5% | 30.6–86.3% | +0.76 | -0.07 | 0.62 | -0.58 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 1h · LONG | 4 | 3 / 1 / 0 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | +10.61 | 0.47 | 1.07 | -0.44 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -2.77 | -1.01 | 0.00 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 15m · LONG | 9 | 4 / 5 / 0 | 44.4% | 18.9–73.3% | +1.02 | -0.20 | 0.82 | -0.69 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 15m · SHORT | 6 | 5 / 1 / 0 | 83.3% | 43.6–97.0% | -0.14 | 0.47 | 1.11 | -0.40 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 1h · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | +2.70 | -0.04 | 0.68 | -0.59 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.02 | -1.00 | 0.03 | -1.00 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 4h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.05 | 1.10 | 1.61 | -0.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEW_YORK · 15m · LONG | 36 | 17 / 19 / 0 | 47.2% | 32.0–63.0% | -6.11 | -0.03 | 0.83 | -0.60 | ENOUGH N |
| NEW_YORK · 15m · SHORT | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | -162.02 | -0.34 | 0.63 | -0.72 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEW_YORK · 1h · LONG | 10 | 5 / 5 / 0 | 50.0% | 23.7–76.3% | +31.32 | -0.19 | 0.80 | -0.70 | WATCH |
| NEW_YORK · 1h · SHORT | 7 | 3 / 4 / 0 | 42.9% | 15.8–75.0% | +0.27 | -0.25 | 0.75 | -0.68 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEW_YORK · 4h · LONG | 4 | 4 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 51.0–100.0% | +840.50 | 1.30 | 1.60 | -0.31 | LOW SAMPLE |
| OFF_HOURS · 15m · LONG | 20 | 10 / 10 / 0 | 50.0% | 29.9–70.1% | +0.31 | 0.01 | 0.93 | -0.67 | WATCH |
| OFF_HOURS · 15m · SHORT | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | -0.00 | -0.45 | 0.17 | -0.86 | LOW SAMPLE |
| OFF_HOURS · 1h · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | -0.01 | -0.05 | 0.75 | -0.98 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 15m · LONG | 86 | 58 / 28 / 0 | 67.4% | 57.0–76.4% | -0.24 | 0.28 | 1.05 | -0.55 | ENOUGH N |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 15m · SHORT | 5 | 0 / 5 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–43.5% | -6.65 | -1.12 | 0.36 | -1.12 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 1d · SHORT | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +11.13 | 0.43 | 0.99 | -0.44 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 1h · LONG | 31 | 18 / 13 / 0 | 58.1% | 40.8–73.6% | -25.12 | 0.14 | 0.89 | -0.63 | ENOUGH N |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 1h · SHORT | 7 | 6 / 1 / 0 | 85.7% | 48.7–97.4% | +1.35 | 0.17 | 0.56 | -0.56 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
Asia / London / New York are UTC research windows, not exchange hours.
ANONYMOUS PARTICIPANT PRESSURE
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUYER_AGGRESSION · 15m · LONG | 4 | 3 / 1 / 0 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | +0.22 | 0.57 | 1.31 | -0.41 | LOW SAMPLE |
| BUYER_AGGRESSION · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.46 | 0.54 | 0.68 | -0.86 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 15m · LONG | 66 | 38 / 28 / 0 | 57.6% | 45.6–68.8% | +7.33 | 0.14 | 0.94 | -0.58 | ENOUGH N |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 15m · SHORT | 8 | 4 / 4 / 0 | 50.0% | 21.5–78.5% | -121.51 | -0.36 | 0.51 | -0.73 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.12 | 1.10 | 1.58 | -0.05 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 1h · LONG | 12 | 9 / 3 / 0 | 75.0% | 46.8–91.1% | +1.12 | 0.24 | 0.85 | -0.52 | WATCH |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 1h · SHORT | 7 | 7 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 64.6–100.0% | +1.63 | 0.56 | 0.80 | -0.37 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 15m · LONG | 134 | 72 / 62 / 0 | 53.7% | 45.3–62.0% | -9.92 | -0.01 | 0.90 | -0.66 | ENOUGH N |
| NEUTRAL · 15m · SHORT | 26 | 12 / 14 / 0 | 46.1% | 28.8–64.5% | -1.19 | -0.33 | 0.59 | -0.78 | WATCH |
| NEUTRAL · 1d · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +88.74 | 1.27 | 1.37 | -0.49 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 1d · SHORT | 3 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 43.9–100.0% | +12.37 | 0.59 | 1.09 | -0.36 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 1h · LONG | 48 | 23 / 25 / 0 | 47.9% | 34.5–61.7% | -22.11 | -0.06 | 0.82 | -0.71 | ENOUGH N |
| NEUTRAL · 1h · SHORT | 10 | 3 / 7 / 0 | 30.0% | 10.8–60.3% | -0.29 | -0.50 | 0.58 | -0.83 | WATCH |
| NEUTRAL · 4h · LONG | 9 | 8 / 1 / 0 | 88.9% | 56.5–98.0% | +372.21 | 1.15 | 1.62 | -0.36 | LOW SAMPLE |
| SELLER_AGGRESSION · 15m · LONG | 11 | 6 / 5 / 0 | 54.5% | 28.0–78.7% | -0.49 | 0.15 | 1.16 | -0.65 | WATCH |
| SELLER_AGGRESSION · 15m · SHORT | 3 | 2 / 1 / 0 | 66.7% | 20.8–93.8% | +0.03 | 0.16 | 0.86 | -0.39 | LOW SAMPLE |
Behavioral pressure states only — no participant identity is inferred.
WHY SOME OUTCOMES ARE NOT COUNTED
decision_scope_legacy_incomplete2
legacy_close_price_provenance_unknown55
Engine lifecycle outcomes only, verified against outcome proofs. Avg result is the engine lifecycle result (simulated) — not exchange-reconciled PnL. R-multiple / MFE / MAE are engine-tick excursion analytics and stay “—” until enough new closes carry them. Educational analytics — not financial advice.