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NO ACTIVE SIGNAL · BTCUSDTMarket state NO-TRADEIndex 41/100Levels appear only when a real signal is published
B
+0.75%VERIFIED FEEDBTC / USDT79,645.6
SYNTALIUM
KEY INDICATORS · BTCUSDT · 1h
IndicatorCurrentGaugeEngine status
Syntalium Index41.4 / 100WAIT
Entropy · noise0.8707ENTROPY_HIGH
Trend strength2.8543TREND_WEAK
ATR % · volatility0.0057ATR_OK
Candle pressure-0.6715PRESSURE_SELL
Taker ratio0.4449TAKER_BALANCED
Volume Z-score-0.5336—
Market stateNO-TRADECLEAN_SNAPSHOT
Freshness50m agoFRESH
Printed values are exact public-contract values; gauges are display-only. Engine status chips are the engine's own published reason codes — not trade instructions.
RECORD & PROOF
Published signalNONE
Published at—
Close reason—
Decision proof—
Publication receipt—
Outcome proof—
SNAP IDc7ec4940f37cbc11b6…
Publish rolebtc_hourly_free_visual
Published at2026-08-28 08:00:38
VerifyVerify SNAP ↗
Proof verifies stored SNAP payload integrity. It does not guarantee trade performance or represent financial advice.
RESEARCH STATS · PROOF-BASED COHORTS
VERIFIED OUTCOMES ONLYVerified outcomes 272Excluded outcomes 57Cohorts 183Generated 2026-08-28T08:49:44+00:00 UTC
Engine lifecycle outcomes only. Educational analytics. Not financial advice.
19/183Cohorts at full statistical confidence
27Watch — preliminary signal
137Low sample — too early to read
LONG + SHORTDirections with verified outcomes
Research accumulates every time a setup closes — these counts grow on their own; nothing here is backfilled or replayed.
TIMEFRAME × DIRECTION
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m · LONG | 205 | 114 / 91 / 0 | 55.6% | 48.8–62.3% | -4.18 | 0.05 | 0.92 | -0.63 | ENOUGH N |
| 15m · SHORT | 7 | 4 / 3 / 0 | 57.1% | 25.1–84.2% | +0.19 | -0.06 | 0.72 | -0.61 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 1d · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.16 | 1.80 | 2.04 | -0.16 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +14.86 | 0.90 | 1.29 | -0.19 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 1h · LONG | 46 | 26 / 20 / 0 | 56.5% | 42.3–69.8% | -45.77 | 0.04 | 0.84 | -0.69 | ENOUGH N |
| 1h · SHORT | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -1.39 | -1.01 | 0.02 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 4h · LONG | 8 | 6 / 2 / 0 | 75.0% | 40.9–92.8% | +331.06 | 0.76 | 1.46 | -0.45 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
RAW MODEL SCORE BUCKETS
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 · 15m · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | +0.69 | -0.13 | 0.67 | -0.76 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.50-0.55 · 15m · SHORT | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | -0.04 | -0.12 | 0.78 | -0.50 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 15m · LONG | 10 | 8 / 2 / 0 | 80.0% | 49.0–94.3% | +0.08 | 0.30 | 0.89 | -0.43 | WATCH |
| 0.55-0.60 · 15m · SHORT | 4 | 3 / 1 / 0 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | +0.36 | 0.23 | 0.86 | -0.54 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.21 | 2.51 | 2.51 | -0.28 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +14.86 | 0.90 | 1.29 | -0.19 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1h · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | -4.64 | -0.09 | 0.98 | -0.82 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 1h · SHORT | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -1.39 | -1.01 | 0.02 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.55-0.60 · 4h · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | +1674.53 | -0.15 | 0.64 | -0.71 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 15m · LONG | 12 | 5 / 7 / 0 | 41.7% | 19.3–68.0% | -3.13 | -0.13 | 0.95 | -0.80 | WATCH |
| 0.60-0.65 · 15m · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.01 | -1.13 | 0.04 | -1.13 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 1h · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | +0.22 | -0.23 | 0.54 | -0.93 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.60-0.65 · 4h · LONG | 5 | 5 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 56.5–100.0% | +0.12 | 1.47 | 1.93 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 15m · LONG | 16 | 8 / 8 / 0 | 50.0% | 28.0–72.0% | -1.42 | -0.19 | 0.75 | -0.72 | WATCH |
| 0.65-0.70 · 1h · LONG | 5 | 4 / 1 / 0 | 80.0% | 37.5–96.4% | +2.72 | 0.62 | 1.30 | -0.66 | LOW SAMPLE |
| 0.65-0.70 · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 15m · LONG | 163 | 91 / 72 / 0 | 55.8% | 48.2–63.2% | -4.90 | 0.08 | 0.95 | -0.62 | ENOUGH N |
| >=0.70 · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.12 | 1.10 | 1.58 | -0.05 | LOW SAMPLE |
| >=0.70 · 1h · LONG | 35 | 19 / 16 / 0 | 54.3% | 38.2–69.5% | -60.03 | -0.01 | 0.78 | -0.66 | ENOUGH N |
| >=0.70 · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
Raw model score is a raw engine output — not a calibrated probability.
ENTROPY REGIMES
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH · 15m · LONG | 168 | 99 / 69 / 0 | 58.9% | 51.4–66.1% | -4.70 | 0.11 | 0.94 | -0.61 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 15m · SHORT | 7 | 4 / 3 / 0 | 57.1% | 25.1–84.2% | +0.19 | -0.06 | 0.72 | -0.61 | LOW SAMPLE |
| HIGH · 1d · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.16 | 1.80 | 2.04 | -0.16 | LOW SAMPLE |
| HIGH · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +14.86 | 0.90 | 1.29 | -0.19 | LOW SAMPLE |
| HIGH · 1h · LONG | 41 | 23 / 18 / 0 | 56.1% | 41.0–70.1% | -51.24 | 0.05 | 0.84 | -0.66 | ENOUGH N |
| HIGH · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -2.77 | -1.01 | 0.00 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| HIGH · 4h · LONG | 6 | 4 / 2 / 0 | 66.7% | 30.0–90.3% | -118.88 | 0.70 | 1.50 | -0.45 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LOW · 15m · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.00 | -1.01 | 0.14 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LOW · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.01 | 0.82 | 1.19 | -0.70 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 15m · LONG | 36 | 15 / 21 / 0 | 41.7% | 27.1–57.8% | -1.84 | -0.20 | 0.86 | -0.71 | ENOUGH N |
| MID · 1h · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | -1.18 | -0.24 | 0.78 | -0.89 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.02 | -1.00 | 0.03 | -1.00 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 4h · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +1680.89 | 0.93 | 1.34 | -0.45 | LOW SAMPLE |
| MID · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
UTC SESSION BEHAVIOR
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 15m · LONG | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | -2.33 | -0.27 | 0.68 | -0.73 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA_LONDON_OVERLAP · 4h · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.98 | 2.32 | -0.22 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 15m · LONG | 30 | 14 / 16 / 0 | 46.7% | 30.2–63.9% | +12.56 | -0.13 | 0.84 | -0.73 | ENOUGH N |
| ASIA · 15m · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.02 | -1.10 | 0.00 | -1.10 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 1d · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.16 | 1.80 | 2.04 | -0.16 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +14.86 | 0.90 | 1.29 | -0.19 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 1h · LONG | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | -105.45 | -0.19 | 0.72 | -0.82 | LOW SAMPLE |
| ASIA · 4h · LONG | 2 | 1 / 1 / 0 | 50.0% | 9.4–90.5% | -6.32 | 0.07 | 0.94 | -0.75 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 15m · LONG | 25 | 13 / 12 / 0 | 52.0% | 33.5–70.0% | -39.50 | -0.05 | 0.92 | -0.73 | WATCH |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 15m · SHORT | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.72 | 0.56 | 1.03 | -0.36 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.61 | 1.24 | 1.79 | -0.40 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON_NEW_YORK_OVERLAP · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -2.77 | -1.01 | 0.00 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 15m · LONG | 9 | 4 / 5 / 0 | 44.4% | 18.9–73.3% | +1.02 | -0.20 | 0.82 | -0.69 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 15m · SHORT | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +0.04 | 0.84 | 1.34 | -0.17 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 1h · LONG | 4 | 2 / 2 / 0 | 50.0% | 15.0–85.0% | +2.70 | -0.04 | 0.68 | -0.59 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 1h · SHORT | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -0.02 | -1.00 | 0.03 | -1.00 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LONDON · 4h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.05 | 1.10 | 1.61 | -0.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEW_YORK · 15m · LONG | 34 | 16 / 18 / 0 | 47.1% | 31.4–63.3% | -6.47 | -0.03 | 0.83 | -0.58 | ENOUGH N |
| NEW_YORK · 1h · LONG | 3 | 1 / 2 / 0 | 33.3% | 6.2–79.2% | -237.86 | -0.56 | 0.72 | -0.88 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEW_YORK · 4h · LONG | 2 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 34.2–100.0% | +1680.89 | 0.95 | 1.38 | -0.31 | LOW SAMPLE |
| OFF_HOURS · 15m · LONG | 18 | 8 / 10 / 0 | 44.4% | 24.6–66.3% | +0.05 | -0.20 | 0.80 | -0.73 | WATCH |
| OFF_HOURS · 1h · LONG | 3 | 2 / 1 / 0 | 66.7% | 20.8–93.8% | +0.00 | 0.28 | 0.89 | -0.95 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 15m · LONG | 83 | 56 / 27 / 0 | 67.5% | 56.8–76.6% | -0.26 | 0.28 | 1.04 | -0.55 | ENOUGH N |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 15m · SHORT | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -0.06 | -1.07 | 0.16 | -1.07 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 1h · LONG | 29 | 17 / 12 / 0 | 58.6% | 40.7–74.5% | -26.58 | 0.10 | 0.86 | -0.63 | WATCH |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| WEEKEND_LOW_LIQUIDITY · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
Asia / London / New York are UTC research windows, not exchange hours.
ANONYMOUS PARTICIPANT PRESSURE
| Cohort | N | W / L / BE | Win rate | Wilson 95% | Avg result | Avg R | MFE R | MAE R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUYER_AGGRESSION · 15m · LONG | 4 | 3 / 1 / 0 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | +0.22 | 0.57 | 1.31 | -0.41 | LOW SAMPLE |
| BUYER_AGGRESSION · 1h · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.46 | 0.54 | 0.68 | -0.86 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 15m · LONG | 64 | 37 / 27 / 0 | 57.8% | 45.6–69.1% | +7.48 | 0.15 | 0.93 | -0.58 | ENOUGH N |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.12 | 1.10 | 1.58 | -0.05 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 1h · LONG | 12 | 9 / 3 / 0 | 75.0% | 46.8–91.1% | +1.12 | 0.24 | 0.85 | -0.52 | WATCH |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 4h · LONG | 1 | 0 / 1 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–79.3% | -701.21 | -1.01 | 0.74 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| LIQUIDITY_VACUUM · 4h · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.24 | 1.43 | 2.05 | -0.23 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 15m · LONG | 126 | 68 / 58 / 0 | 54.0% | 45.3–62.4% | -10.56 | -0.02 | 0.89 | -0.66 | ENOUGH N |
| NEUTRAL · 15m · SHORT | 6 | 3 / 3 / 0 | 50.0% | 18.8–81.2% | +0.22 | -0.20 | 0.63 | -0.72 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 1d · LONG | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.21 | 2.51 | 2.51 | -0.28 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 1d · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +14.86 | 0.90 | 1.29 | -0.19 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 1h · LONG | 33 | 16 / 17 / 0 | 48.5% | 32.5–64.8% | -64.23 | -0.05 | 0.84 | -0.74 | ENOUGH N |
| NEUTRAL · 1h · SHORT | 2 | 0 / 2 / 0 | 0.0% | 0.0–65.8% | -1.39 | -1.01 | 0.02 | -1.01 | LOW SAMPLE |
| NEUTRAL · 4h · LONG | 7 | 6 / 1 / 0 | 85.7% | 48.7–97.4% | +478.53 | 1.01 | 1.56 | -0.37 | LOW SAMPLE |
| SELLER_AGGRESSION · 15m · LONG | 11 | 6 / 5 / 0 | 54.5% | 28.0–78.7% | -0.49 | 0.15 | 1.16 | -0.65 | WATCH |
| SELLER_AGGRESSION · 15m · SHORT | 1 | 1 / 0 / 0 | 100% | 20.6–100.0% | +0.04 | 0.77 | 1.28 | 0.00 | LOW SAMPLE |
Behavioral pressure states only — no participant identity is inferred.
WHY SOME OUTCOMES ARE NOT COUNTED
decision_scope_legacy_incomplete2
legacy_close_price_provenance_unknown55
Engine lifecycle outcomes only, verified against outcome proofs. Avg result is the engine lifecycle result (simulated) — not exchange-reconciled PnL. R-multiple / MFE / MAE are engine-tick excursion analytics and stay “—” until enough new closes carry them. Educational analytics — not financial advice.